Manchester United’s 2024/25 campaign has gotten off to a disastrous start. The Red Devils are reeling in 13th place in the Premier League and drew their first Europa League game. It has been a far from the ideal start to the new season for Erik ten Hag’s side.
The Dutch manager now finds himself under some pressure, with a big week ahead for United. They travel to FC Porto on Thursday night in the Europa League, before a trip to Villa Park awaits them on Sunday afternoon.
Losses to the Portuguese side and Aston Villa could leave Ten Hag in trouble, with reporter Alex Crook reporting that “a managerial change” will be made if results do not improve.
United’s underlying numbers so far
Context is important, and whilst the Red Devils have clearly made a poor start to the new season, it is necessary to look further than their results. For reference, Ten Hag’s side have played six times in the Premier League, winning two, drawing one and losing three.
The losses have not just been unlucky defeats, either. The first one came against Brighton and Hove Albion, a late 2-1 defeat at the Amex. Liverpool then won at Old Trafford the following week, a humbling 3-0 victory, before Tottenham repeated the feat last Sunday.
Using Understat’s detailed Premier League table, it is clear to see that United are massively underachieving. They have amassed seven points so far, but are underachieving on expected points, a metric which suggests they should have 1.63 points more than they do, with an expected points tally of 8.63xPTS.
Whilst they are statistically seeming more comfortable from a defensive standpoint this season, they are struggling to find the back of the net, having scored five times. However, their expected goals tally is a shocking contrast; as high as 10.81xG, a big gap between the suggested total and the actual total.
Stat
Number
PL Rank
Points
7
=8th
Expected points
8.63xPTS
10th
Goals scored
5
=8th
Expected goals scored
10.81xG
9th
Goals against
8
=5th
Expected goals against
13.10
17th
All of these numbers are cause for concern for Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his newly appointed hierarchy. Should they decide to sack Ten Hag if things don’t improve, they may have the perfect replacement waiting in the wings.
The dream Ten Hag replacement
The man in question here is club legend, and current United assistant manager, Ruud van Nistelrooy. The former striker scored 150 goals and grabbed 30 assists in just 219 games for the Red Devils; he is widely regarded as one of the club’s best-ever centre-forwards.
Now, with Ten Hag’s future up in the air, the former Dutch striker has been linked with the role should it become vacant.
According to Crook, the United board “would consider putting” their legendary striker in interim charge, something which could turn permanent if it is a success, just as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer found out in 2019.
The 48-year-old is a great manager in his own right and comes with a high reputation. He was manager of Dutch giants PSV Eindhoven in the 2022/23 campaign and coached a side that included Everton defender, and long-term United target Jarrad Branthwaite, and exciting young Netherlands attacker Xavi Simons.
Van Nistelrooy had a superb record at PSV, coaching 50 games in all competitions, winning 34, drawing eight and losing eight. He won the Dutch Cup during his time in Eindhoven, but left the club due to ‘a lack of management support and amid reports of a player revolt’, as ESPN reported.
Impressively, Van Nistelrooy has a “better win rate than Arne Slot” in the Eredivisie as football statistician Statman Dave explained.
The man who replaced Jurgen Klopp at Anfield over the summer previously coached Feyenoord.
There, Slot boasted a win rate of 65%, less than the former United manager, who had a 69% win rate in the league at PSV. Van Nistelrooy also had a better league win rate than Ten Hag during his Ajax tenure, where he won 67% of his games.
It would be a bold choice for United to appoint Van Nistelrooy, but he is clearly a manager with great talent, as his record at PSV suggests.
Given he is an all-time great of the club, the appointment would surely go down well with the fans. He would be hoping to guide the club back on track this season if given the chance.
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